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Toni Schönfelder
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Gridlock: All Trains Lead to Moscow 24 August 2000 Summary The Russian Railways Ministry banned Russian freight trains from carrying cargo to or from former Soviet republics that owe the ministry money. Since most of these states depend upon Russian transportation for their exports, the Railways Ministry decision could deliver a crushing blow to their fragile economies. It also highlights just how dependent on Russia these countries remain - and who is ultimately in charge. Analysis The Russian Railways Ministry temporarily banned Russian freight trains from carrying cargo to or from former Soviet republics that owe the ministry money, according to the Moscow Times on Aug. 19. Since most of these states depend upon Russian transportation for their exports, the Railways Ministry decision could deliver a crushing blow to their fragile economies. It also highlights just how dependent on Russia these countries remain. The ban covers Azerbaijan, Georgia, Moldova, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan - all states that count Russia as their largest trading partner. While the states could dispatch their own trains to shuttle goods across the breadth of Russia, they would then be unavailable to service local needs. For the Central Asian states the ban is a double blow. Any exports destined for Europe or the United States must first transit Russian territory. Until the debts are paid, that transit is impossible. Shifting their trade to other states is not an option. There simply isnt infrastructure to support other trade relationships. Of the states targeted, only Georgia has a seaport. Azerbaijan, Kazakstan and Turkmenistan each has only a single rail line that leads away from the former Soviet Union. Uzbekistan is doubly landlocked. While replacing rail transport with truck shipping is an option, it is not an attractive one from a cost point of view. Almost all of the exports of the states on the blacklist are bulk commodities: cotton, coal, grain and various ores. Fuel costs alone make trucks unfeasible. For example, once a shipment of cotton from Tashkent bound for Europe crosses 1,000 kilometers of Kazak territory, it still must traverse 2,000 kilometers of Russian territory and 1,000 kilometers of Ukrainian territory before even reaching Central Europe. Thats quite a gasoline bill. This is not to say that the railways of the former Soviet Union are in good shape. Russian Railways Minister Nikolai Aksyonenko estimates that $22 billion in repairs are needed to restore full productivity. Yet they are still the most efficient transportation option - or at least they were until the Railways Ministry decision. As it stands, only petroleum exports shipped via pipelines will be unaffected. With a single ban, the Railways Ministry effectively gutted the export economies of six states. They will have no choice but to pay their debts in full, and in hard currency. Options for retaliation are few and ineffective. Georgia could push for closer NATO ties and Uzbekistan could again withdraw from Russian led security pacts. But in the end, Russia holds too many hammers over the states on the blacklist to brook any serious resistance. There is a political component to the ban as well. Aside from Tajikistan, all of the blacklisted states have rocky relations with Russia. Yet since they have no economic alternatives to Russian predominance, cutting off rail access is a simple - and excruciatingly painful - way for Moscow to drive home just who really is in control.

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