Back to Toni Schönfelders homepage
Toni Schönfelder A lifetime of innovation
Web library-Bookmarks, My favorites
Debate - Opinion in English
Russia and Baltic States
- 203 Russia mobilizes army to fight fires august 2010
- 202 The 2nd Wave Is Coming in Russia
- 201 Russia 2008 Travel Summary & Local laws and customs
- 200 Russia New legislation for real estate & tax rules may 2007
- 199 Russian ex-president Yeltsin dies
- 198 Journalist Anna Politkovskaya has been posthumously awarded
- 197 We must ask ourselves: Do we live in a society where corruption is a moral perversity to the normal flow of things? 28/9 2006
- 196 Transparency International listed Russia as one of the nations where perceived corruption had increased from the previous years survey, sep 2006
- 195 The Kremlin is warning Western governments july 2006
- 194 EU,US, Baltic States These countries have become the enemies in the new "chilly war" May 06
- 193 In fact, Russia is not so unique in having a problem with corruption -- indeed, most countries of the world operate in similar conditions 17 mai 06
- 192 Heads roll in anti-corruption drive 15 May 2006
- 191 Strong rebuke for the Kremlin - mai 2005
- 190 The energy ministers of the European Union (EU) have called on Russia to speed up the ratification of the Energy Charter, but Russia is not in a hurry to comply. April 06
- 189 Its a great story, but its an ugly one, too. Russia feb 2006
- 188 "The fish rots from the head." Indeed! jan 2006
- 187 Some estimates indicate that corruption in universities is rising by 7-10 percent annually, jan 2006
- 186 Russia Organized crime still remains a major challenge dec 2005
- 185 Russia’s Forestry Industry is perceived as one of the most corrupt in the world Nov 2005
- 184 Russia has reverted to the Wild East. But these days the crooks are the government. May 2005
- 183 U.N. Officials Cited in Oil - For - Food Case ´´take care´´ of ´´U.N. Official No. 1.´´ april 2005
- 182 UNDERSTANDING PALESTINIAN POLITICS , nov 2004
- 181 UNDERSTANDING TERROR NETWORKS, november 2004
- 180 PUBLIC THEOLOGY AND DEMOCRACYS FUTURE
- 179 Jan 20, 2004, When a leader who is trusted goes into battle, he must not be left alone
- 178 There may be an element of poetic justice in Vladimir Gusinsky
- 177 RUSSIA Groups Urge Putin on Privatization
- 176 Putin wanted to discuss methods of battling corruption
- 175 Corruption Costs Russia USD 30 Billion a Year
- 174 More Russians Back in Davos Feb 2003
- 173 Police officers were secretly members of criminal groups
- 172 THE TURKISH FACTOR IN THE GEOPOLITICS OF THE POST-SOVIET SPACE
- 171 EU candidates face corruption issues Nov 2002
- 170 Assassination of Magadan Governor Valentin Tsvetkov,
- 169 The Resurgence of Lies and Disinformation
- 168 Oil and trade play part in U.N. debate on Iraq
- 167 Center-Right Wins Latvian Poll
- 166 Radio Liberty Stripped Of Status
- 165 Most visits to Lithuania are trouble-free
- 164 The Soviet secret police -- VChK, GPU, NKVD, KGB Top Secret Files Tell Story of Expulsion
- 163 The Men Who Tried to Topple Mikhail Gorbachev
- 162 No Fireworks for 10th Anniversary After 10 Year No 7
- 161 Fall of the Soviet Union Symbolized Death of an Idea 10 Year after No 6
- 160 Defenders Recount Their Moment of Glory 10 Year after no 5
- 159 Communist Party Comes Full Circle 10 Year after No 4
- 158 What Putin Did During The Coup
- 157 Economic Crash No One Saw Coming 10 year after no 2
- 156 The Coup 1991 - 2001 Ten Years after no 1
- 155 OPEC, Russia and Iraq
- 154 Iran has said it wants the sea split equally between the five while Russia, Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan
- 153 the worlds third-largest nuclear arsenal belonged to little Ukraine
- 152 The shortcomings of Russias bureaucracy are legion, its incompetence is legendary
- 151 ............called for Chubais to quit. sep 2002
- 150 $3Bln Baku-Ceyhan Pipeline Gets Under Way
- 149 LUKoil in Talks With Kidnappers
- 148 Berezovsky & "The Godfather" and "Citizen Kane."
- 147 Not All Listen to Putins Orders
- 146 In Russia, majority shareholders rights do not exist
- 145 United States has blacklisted three Russian defense contractors it says are "transferring lethal military equipment" to countries supporting terrorism
- 144 Under the Vienna Convention on Consular Relations of 1963..........the Pacific port of Vladivostok
- 143 The Dignity of Difference: Avoiding the Clash of Civilizations
- 142 Russian companies paid a total of 33.5 billion dollars in bribes
- 141 Duma member Vladimir Golovlyov shot dead in contract killing aug 2002
- 140 Putin issues Ethics Code for civil servants aug 2002
- 139 Latvia Premier signs decree on party financial declarations
- 138 Whatever Happened To Those Vouchers? Mr Putin?
- 137 Russia with Iran, and in particular its sale of nuclear technology
- 136 First Deputy Smolensk Governor Vladimir Prokhorov was shot and killed
- 135 Smuggling, da. Extortion, da. Murder, da.
- 134 Kremlin Kills Plan To Retake Resources
- 133 U.S. to Russia: Clean corruption up
- 132 Latvia Government decides on third competition to find anti-corruption chief
- 131 We do not give out any information!
- 130 "The U.S. Media -- Problems of Free Speech."
- 129 Defenders of the oligarch system in Russia liken the development to that of the robber barons in the United States and elsewhere
- 128 There Is a New Billionaire in Town
- 127 FREE PRESS in RUSSIA 2002, sorry its not
- 126 Russia Tracking down IMF billions Crime and Corruption Watch 27 Jun 2002
- 125 Russians pay for state corruption 07.2002
- 124 BUSHS SEARCH FOR COMMON GROUND june 2002
- 123 A bribery arrest in Krasnoyarsk
- 122 Georg P Shultz THE WORK OF DIPLOMACY Before & after the 11 sep 2001
- 121 THE FUTILE SEARCH FOR "ROOT CAUSES" OF TERRORISM
- 120 CIA Will Continue Search for New Russian Technologies
- 119 Swiss to repay Russia over bail for corrupt ex-Kremlin adviser Borodin
- 118 Lithuanian President Valdas Adamkus urged lawmakers to strengthen the fight against corruption
- 117 At present legal base for the transport and freight forwarding activities in the Russian Federation practically doesnt exist
- 116 Either the United States would cease to be a democracy or the Soviet Union would cease to be a Leninist dictatorship
- 115 Back to the USSR
- 114 From Russia With Love
- 113 "check that the paperwork was done correctly, but look right past the deeply corrupt heart of the matter
- 112 Stepashin Turns Up Heat on Ministers
- 111 After he refused to pay a police major a $20,000 bribe
- 110 With auditing today 10 years after the term arrived on the Russian market it turns out that everyone understands it differently
- 109 Putin said 7,000 killers had escaped punishment last year and that hundreds of thousands of other criminals
- 108 Majority of Russians believe Russia is among 10 most corrupt countries 02.02
- 107 He seems to have powerful patrons, and he is very smart The Corruption is still going on. Febr 02
- 106 Kremlin bailiffs pull the plugs on last independent television network jan 2002
- 105 GlavUpDK pays no taxes on the land it uses.
- 104 Indeed, last year Mr. Bush cited the 30 percent Russian.... January 25, 2002
- 103 Pugachyov is not some Putin protege plucked from obscurity TV 6 NTV jan 2002
- 102 Russian President Vladimir Putin appears to be ushering in a new era
- 101 Two held in first criminal probe into Gazprom
- 100 During its eight years of operation, Estline never posted a profit 2002.01
- 99 Corruption remains major problem in Latvia "I dont see any light at the end of the tunnel", 2002
- 98 Putin warns audit chambers against politicisation . jan 02
- 97 Bosse Ringholm - Riksgälden och Flygförsäkringsmarknaden!
- 96 Work to curb economic crime, corruption not good enough - Russian minister 25 dec 2001
- 95 Putin Answers Russians´ Questions NYT 24 dec 2001
- 94 Russia there is only one easy and relatively inexpensive way to ship goods -- by rail
- 93 Chubais Doesnt Mind the Heat Over UES
- 92 And Gazprom will soon find out if it is next
- 91 The Yeltsin-era insiders career is over and a wider war on corruption is under way
- 90 Visa hassles for many tourists are to be reduced from feb 02
- 89 Ombudsman concerned with corruption at Russian border checkpoint
- 88 Probes Giving Ministers Jitters
- 87 Moscow Gets New Tool for Money Monitoring
- 86 RUSSIA: The government-criminal alliance
- 85 RUSSIA: Rankings Rain on Economic Parade
- 81 Foreign Policy Research Institute WATCH ON THE WEST
- 80 Are Bribes a Great Deal? Russia 2001?
- 79 The attacks in New York City and Washington, D.C., 11 September 2001
- 78 U.S. Campaign Presents Benefits for Russia
- 77 Foreign Workers Face New Red Tape
- 76 The attacks in New York City and Washington, D.C., 11 September 2001
- 75 Yakovlev Decree Sets Sights on Corruption
- 74 New Details in RusAl Murder Suit
- 73 Stealing the State, and Everything Else A Survey of Corruption in the Postcommunist World
- 72 St. Pete Should Brace for Capital Invasion
- 71 Why Does Russia Need Vertical Integration?
- 70 After a false start, Russia may at last be breaking free of the shackles of
- 69 "There is no place for a radio like Ekho Moskvy here anymore."
- 68 RUSSIA: Ethos of corruption in nuclear establishment
- 67 Baltic States Membership in NATO Unlikely
- 66 RUSSIA: Audit blasts $880 million Moscow charity scheme
- 65 RUSSIA: $10 billion per year foreign direct investment lost due to non-transparency says PwC
- 64 RUSSIA: Prosecutor vows to pursue extradition of media mogul
- 63 Corruption in Russian newspapers exposed
- 62 Putin tightens curbs on press with bank raid
- 61 Wife Says Russians Have Rediscovered Their Pride
- 60 Putin Moving to Control Russia on All Political Levels
- 59 Oligarch hits out at his Kremlin monster
- 58 Russian Journalists Targeted in Attacks Corruption Investigators Face Slashed
- 57 Putin Moving to Control Russia on All Political Levels
- 56 Oligarch hits out at his Kremlin monster
- 55 RUSSIA: MEDIA EXECUTIVE ORDERED ARRESTED, VOWS TO STAY OUT OF COUNTRY
- 54 WESTERN AID TO RUSSIA ``LACKING OVERALL STRATEGY``
- 53 USA: GAO AUDIT REPORT FINDS AID TO RUSSIA FAILED
- 52 GAO AUDITORS SAY AGRICULTURE DEPARTMENT LAX IN HANDLING RUSSIAN FOOD AID
- 51 BANKS WORK WITH TRANSPARENCY INTERNATIONAL TO ESTABLISH ANTI-MONEY LAUNDERING PRINCIPLES
- 50 The High Price of Russias Military Improvement Plan
- 49 In Russia, Rich Get Poorer, Poor Get Poorer
- 48 Russia Makes me Nervous-Latvias Vike-Freiberga
- 47 RUSSIA: GIANT MEDIA FIRM CHARGED WITH FRAUD OVER ASSETS TRANSFERRED OFFSHORE
- 46 RUSSIA: ELECTRONIC ANTI-CORRUPTION PROPOSED USING THE INTERNET
- 45 Increasing the Risk of Investing in Russian Companies
- 44 Russian auditor confirms graft in Govt.
- 43 Swiss firms mafia links
- 42 Russia: Putin’s Coming Concession to the Oligarchs
- 41 Gridlock: All Trains Lead to Moscow
- 40 BEREZOVSKII SAYS KREMLIN THREATENS HIM OVER ORT SHARES
- 39 Russia continues to be an intensely dangerous place to work
- 38 The Long Arm of Organized Crime Reaches Deeply Into St. Petersburg's
- 37 RUSSIA
FEDERAL PROSECUTOR SEEKS TO OVERTURN PRIVATIZATION DEAL…
- 36 Russia Makes me Nervous
- 35 Putin Begins Crackdown on Russia's Oligarchs
- 35 Russia Formulates a Hybrid Economy
- 35 Regional Bosses Give Initial O.K. To Putin Move
- 34 Latvia Worried About Delay in NATO Baltic Expansion after Yugoslav War
- 34 Moscow Threatens "Hostile" Western Media
- 33 Russia’s Dwindling Population Ensures Rigid Foreign Policy
- 32 Paper Mocking Yakovlev Is Seized
- 31 Russians Plan To Jack Energy Prices
- 30 Moscow Budget
- 29 Baghdad, Belgrade and Moscow Collaborate Against Washington
- 28 Actualizing
the Alliance: Russia and China Move Toward a Pipeline
- 27 Russia Helping Iraq Upgrade Air Defenses
- 5 The Consequences of Russias Looming Food Shortage
- 4 Putin’s Friendly Face Will Not Last
- 3 Reforms in Post-Soviet Russia Failed. Nov 1999
- 2 THE CRISIS IN RUSSIA (Published in USA Sep 1998)
- 1 To bee a good Citizen of Sweden you must remember this?
Tillbaka till Tonis hemsida
Mina favoritlänkar, kolla in
TaxFree handelns vara och icke vara
Tillägnad bussbranschen av Toni Schönfelder oberoende
och fri debattör
Debatt artiklar av Harald Rosén (Det gäller flyg)
Artiklar som du bara måste läsa,Vakna upp i Sverige!
A lifetime of innovation
Verschiedenes in Deutsch
A lifetime of innovation
OPEC, Russia and Iraq
In September 1960, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries was born at a conference in Baghdad. Over the following 42 years it has managed to avoid serious retaliation for operating the most significant pricing cartel the world has ever known, as well as frequent threats to its unity resulting from internal differences and disputes.
However, over the next 12 to 24 months it faces one of the most critical, and potentially dangerous, periods in its existence. A combination of having sustained the average oil price at too high a level for too long coupled with the aftermath of a likely second Gulf war may have an explosive effect on OPEC.
The global oil industry has thrived due to OPEC interventions in the oil market, and the only reason why Russias economy still has a future is because of the supply reduction decision taken by OPEC in March 1999.
After several years of allowing uncontrolled supply growth among its members that brought the oil price down toward $10 per barrel, the decision to cut supply to just below demand and to continue cutting supply over the following three years forced a sharp price recovery, which led directly to both the recovery in the Russian economy and funded the growth in Russian oil production. This growth in oil production has certainly frustrated OPEC, but the war premium (currently about $8 per barrel) in the oil price over the past 12 months has prevented a more serious confrontation between OPEC and Russia.
Far from celebrating the fact that Russian oil companies are taking market share from OPEC countries, market participants and the Russian government should be praying for the survival of OPEC in order to avoid the supply free-for-all and price collapse that would be the inevitable legacy of its destruction.
Looking at the history of oil prices, there are several periods when the price has been sustained well above the average, and this has always been followed by a comparable period when the price has been below the average. The equation is relatively simple: High oil prices lead to increased competition, while encouraging substitution and conservation among consumers. This usually coincides with intensified internal squabbling among OPEC member states and an increase in quota cheating. And these factors historically have led to a fall in oil prices. Then the cycle starts again, almost irrespective of global demand.
Saudi Arabia tried to break this "boom-bust" cycle 20 years ago (when Sheikh Ahmed Zaki Yamani was oil minister and Faisal was king) in favor of a "fair" price negotiated with the United States but found no support from other members who, even today, dispute Saudi Arabias dominant role in OPEC. However, Saudi Arabia, with the largest quota share and over 50 percent of OPECs total spare capacity, plays a critical role in supply restraint, and without its willingness to be the "swing-producer," it is certain that all current OPEC countries will follow the example of non-OPEC producers and turn the taps full on.
The threat of a second Gulf war, and the political and economic consequences such a war could have for the Middle East and Gulf countries, mean that a lot more is at stake for OPEC than at any other time in its history. It may have to deal with accommodating a rehabilitated "post-Saddam" Iraq in OPECs quota structure. In addition, Saudi Arabias attitude toward the United States may have to change to ensure the survival of the ruling House of Saud.
Iraq is currently thought to be producing about 1.6 million barrels per day against a capacity of about 3 million barrels per day. Assuming there is no significant destruction of oil facilities, a post-Saddam Iraq can be expected to increase exports toward capacity, and OPEC countries would have no choice but to allow this.
Iraq has made no significant expenditures on its oil infrastructure since the start of its war against Iran in the 1980s. Many industry observers now assume that the current proven oil reserves of 113 billion barrels (last validated 20 years ago) will be increased to around 250 billion barrels once access is allowed for modern exploration techniques. Iraq should be able to increase daily production to 4.5 million barrels relatively quickly based on current proven reserves and eventually to over 10 million barrels if the higher reserve base is proven.
The only way that Iraq can increase oil exports to capacity without making the oil price collapse is if Saudi Arabia can persuade other OPEC members to agree to a pro rata reduction or, more likely, if it is willing to bear the brunt of the required reduction itself. Although Saudi Arabia doubled its daily output just after the first Gulf War, it will not be easy for it to reduce output significantly now due to internal budget constraints resulting from high defence, social and debt service costs.
The other important factor is the attitude of the United States. The United States is the largest oil importer in the world (importing about 12 million barrels of its 20 million barrel daily usage) and, as such, it could quite happily live with the disintegration of OPEC as a major beneficiary of the resulting supply free-for-all and price collapse.
This year, consumer countries will depend on OPEC supplies for 36.5 percent of total requirements. Within five years, assuming long-term average growth in demand, that dependency will rise to roughly 40 percent and within 10 years, to over 50 percent. Thus, it is easy to see why major consumer countries are getting more nervous about future supply dependency. If current trends continue, within 20 years the world will be completely dependent on OPEC and Russian/CIS oil. This is a compelling reason to neutralize the cartel before it becomes even more powerful.
Of course, the oil industry has a very powerful lobby in Washington, and cheaper oil is definitely not in its best long-term interest. What is in its best long-term interest is access to Iraqi reserves and a stable, predictable supply and price regime under a more compliant OPEC structure. Failing that, having control through a friendly regime of the probable 250 billion barrels of Iraqi oil reserves provides a very considerable cushion against the growing risk of regime change in Saudi Arabia.
The Russian economy is still in transition and still very dependent on oil despite the progress of the past three years. The economy should not be expected to move away from oil dependency in any meaningful way until there is a substantial increase in investments to sectors other than oil and gas. This is unlikely to happen until well into President Vladimir Putins (probable) second term in office, i.e. no earlier than in three to four years time. In the meantime, what happens to Iraq and OPEC is of critical importance to the Russian economy.
The ideal outcome for Russia is exactly the same as that for Saudi Arabia and OPEC, i.e. maintenance of the status quo and the sanctions regime on Iraqi oil. Thus, Russias opposition to a U.S. invasion of Iraq is completely rational.
It would be an irony indeed if events in Baghdad this winter were to signal the end of the modern oil era and OPEC, just as 42 years ago they saw its start.
To My Readers
Has something youve read here startled you? Are you angry, excited, puzzled or pleased? Do you have ideas to improve our coverage?
Then please write to Me.
All I ask is that you include your full name, the name of the city from which you are writing and a contact telephone number in case we need to get in touch.
I look forward to hearing from you.
Advertising about Spain
All kind of information about Spain in my own web page http://www.spaininformation.org
Fair use notice
The Toni Schönfelder Newsletter and website contains copyrighted material the use of which
has not always been specifically authorised by the copyright owner. The
material is being made available for purposes of education and
discussion in order to better understand the complex nature of
corruption in today's world. I believe this constitutes a "fair use" of
any such copyrighted material as provided for in relevant national laws.
The material is distributed without profit to those who have expressed
an interest in receiving the included information for research and
educational purposes. If you wish to use copyrighted material from this
site for purposes of your own that go beyond "fair use", you must obtain
permission from the copyright owner. Toni Schönfelder cannot guarantee that the
information contained in the Corruption News service is complete
and correct or be liable for any loss incurred as a result of its use.
Nor can Toni Schönfelder be responsible for any subsequent use of the material.
Denna sida är producerad av Toni Schönfelder. Avsändaren har inget ansvar för innehållet i sidor som är länkade -- allt material som finns i egen producerade sidorna får användas fritt och utan kostnad.
Esta página ha sido realizada por el Sr. D. Toni Schönfelder.Los realizadores de la página no se hacen responsables del contenido de las páginas enlazadas a la presente. Toda la información existente en las páginas de realización propia pueden ser utilizadas libremente y sin ningún tipo de coste.
This page has been produced by Mr Toni Schönfelder. The sender does not take any responsibility for the contents of the linked pages. The whole material in the own produced page can be used free of charge.